Long-term Diffusion and Impact of Flood-tolerant Rice

Policy Issue:
Smallholder farmers in South Asia often face unpredictable weather shocks that can significantly reduce crop yields limiting farmer profits and overall welfare. In Bangladesh and India, an estimated 16 percent of the land cultivated for rice is low-lying and prone to flooding. This land is also disproportionately used by the most marginalized farmers, members of Scheduled Castes or Tribes. Recent studies have indicated that flood tolerant rice helps farmers effectively cope with weather shocks, yet little is known about the long-term effects on farmers’ behavior, household welfare, and local markets.

Details of the Intervention:
Building on previous ATAI studies, this project seeks to determine the long-term effects of Swarna-Sub1. Researchers will conduct two follow-up surveys in 2015 and 2016 among farmers who participated in two earlier randomized evaluations measuring Swarna-Sub1 adoption and yield effects. A total of 3,560 farmers will be surveyed in 128 villages in Odisha. The first survey in 2015 will primarily measure long-term adoption of Swarna-Sub1 to understand if farmers switch back to regular Swarna if they are unaffected by flooding. In 2016, the primary outcomes will focus on measuring long-term effects on agricultural practices, rice consumption, household welfare (particularly child nutrition and investment), and market prices. Swarna-Sub1 seed sales will then be conducted to identify demand for seeds.

Results and Policy Lessons:
Project ongoing, results forthcoming.